The Fall of Assad and the Resurgence of ISIS in Syria #

A New Era of Unity and Uncertainty #

After more than 53 years of brutal dictatorship and nearly 14 years of conflict, the Assad government fell in just under two weeks. The sudden collapse of the regime has brought a remarkable sense of unity and euphoria across longstanding divides in the country.

However, a palpable sense of trepidation is growing in northeast Syria, where ISIS once controlled swaths of land. While the group has lost almost all of its former territory, its threat has not dissipated. ISIS has conducted nearly 700 attacks in Syria since January, putting it on track to triple its rate from last year. The sophistication, deadliness, and geographic spread of these attacks have also surged.

ISIS has launched a monthslong campaign of attacks on Syria’s oil industry, and its infamous extortion network has reemerged, providing renewed funding and indicating a concerning level of local intelligence.

The Challenges of Countering ISIS #

Countering ISIS is not straightforward and requires a complex set of interconnected responses beyond military action. ISIS has always been a symptom of the chaos wrought by Syria’s civil war, relying on instability, human suffering, and local grievances to fuel its narrative and drive recruitment.

Assad regime forces have abandoned their positions throughout central Syria, creating a vacuum that Syrian opposition fighters are struggling to fill. The U.S. military has responded with airstrikes against ISIS targets and will need to remain vigilant in the coming weeks.

Factional Conflicts and New Opportunities #

Much of Syria remains a tangle of factional militias. The U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) is facing a potentially existential moment as rival militias capture strategic towns. A fragile cease-fire has been reached, but the SDF’s control over their territory shows signs of faltering.

This state of play, while concerning, also presents new opportunities for the United States in its fight against ISIS. Arab tribes and militias in Deir ez Zour, with roots in Syria’s armed opposition, have been combating ISIS for a decade and may offer potential for new partnerships.

The Detainee Crisis and Repatriation Efforts #

Tens of thousands of ISIS male prisoners and associated women and children remain in detention facilities in northeast Syria. The fall of the Assad regime could open new pathways for repatriating these detainees to their places of origin, including foreign nationals from countries that had normalized ties with Assad.

The Need for Continued Engagement #

There is no quick fix to the problem of ISIS, but urgent steps are required to ensure that progress is not lost. If action is not taken, America’s allies in Syria may eventually be taken apart by internal division and external attacks, potentially forcing a hurried U.S. military withdrawal.

This perilous moment for Syria’s future comes at a time when American foreign policy in the region could change dramatically. However, doing nothing would give ISIS a chance to surge once again, potentially undoing years of effort to combat the terrorist group.